Prediction For Upper Rio Grande Streamflows 2014
MW&A has produced a first-order prediction of Upper Rio Grande streamflows for the year 2014 at the Otowi Gage in North Central New Mexico as a demonstration. This example approach is based on the distribution of 10 year trailing average (10yta) Otowi flow records, conditional upon the distribution of the 10yta PDO index. Given the approach of using January as the terminus of each 10yta calculation, an evaluation and scoring of this prediction can be conducted at the end of 2014.
The method is constructed to demonstrate a simple method for streamflow prediction using oceanic correlations. This method is not necessarily useful or reliable, but points to one of many possible ways that a highly correlated time series pair can be addressed from a forecasting perspective. In this case, a conditional average value is constructed for Otowi, given the Otowi values associated with the PDO range from -0.6 to -0.2. That is a range encompassing the current PDO 10yta value. The forecast range is produced from + – 1 standard deviation centered about the conditional mean.
MW&A can produce higher order, long term streamflow predictions for clients in the US Southwest and elsewhere based upon our unique approaches to oceanic drivers such as the PDO, and our extensive modeling capabilities. Accordingly services can range from stochastic streamflow predictive analyses to advanced integration of downscaled global circulation models (GCMs).
A more general regression is provided in the third figure. The regression coefficient is impressive by any measure. One can see 10yta Otowi values as they spread about the linear fit for any given 10yta PDO value. The latest 10yta PDO value derived in this set is for the end of 2013 and equals roughly -0.3. The latest 10yta Otowi value for that same terminal point is roughly 1174 cfs.
Whether your organization is responsible for water resources management and planning, flood control, agricultural forecasting, insurance underwriting, and/or many other aspects relating to the need for a better estimate of future hydroclimatology, contact MWA for a free initial consultation.
Disclaimer: The information sets provided here, including all graphics, text and underlying calculations, are purely for demonstration purposes. MW&A is not responsible for any errors and/or omissions associated with any aspect of these demonstrative products. Moreover, MW&A is not responsible for any use of these demonstrative products by any other party regardless of purpose.
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